The AI Supercycle upon us
Listen to this article as a radio talk show, all by AI.
In my quest for further understanding of the future of AI, I was fortunate to attend the Foster Global AI Summit Future Talent Forum, co-sponsored by the Foster School of Business at the University of Washington, and the Future Talent Council. The first in a series of my takeaways and explorations as a result of the conference.
AI in 2030: Exploring the AI Technology Supercycle
As we look to the future of AI (and I define the future as five short years from now, in 2030), AI will truly revolutionize global business operations, economic productivity, and workforce dynamics. I’ve written about why and how, before.
The first speaker at the Future Talent Forum was Justin Hotard, the President and CEO of Nokia. My favorite quote from him – and one that set the stage for the entire conference was,
“Every tech advancement has been about people, not about tech.”
And I couldn’t agree more. It was a theme that was evident throughout the day.
What’s a technology Supercycle?
A technology Supercycle is a period when a major new technology emerges and causes widespread, long-term growth and investment across industries. It’s a giant wave that lifts entire sectors of the economy, transforming how businesses operate and people live.
The introduction of the internet was a technology Supercycle. It wasn't just a brief trend, it fundamentally changed how we communicate, shop, learn, and work, leading to sustained economic growth over many years. Similarly, smartphones sparked another Supercycle, reshaping everything from social interactions to business models across the globe.
Today, we’re probably ¾ of the way through the AI Supercycle, but the transformations of the future will likely dwarf what we’ve seen to date. And that’s where the focus on people come in. But more on people in a moment. Let’s focus on the tech trends that are building a brave new world.
The AI Supercycle
Looking specifically through an AI capability lens (which is how Mr. Hotard described the AI Supercycle), we can identify four distinct stages, each marked by significant technological advancements:
Machine Learning & Deep Learning (Pattern Recognition Stage – 2010-2020)
This stage involves AI systems learning from vast amounts of data to recognize patterns, classify information, and make predictions. They're trained on large datasets but primarily act based on statistical patterns, without deep understanding. Well-known systems from this stage are image recognition systems identifying faces or objects, speech recognition in virtual assistants like Siri or Alexa, and recommendation algorithms used by Netflix or YouTube.
AI Reasoning & Understanding (Cognitive Stage – 2020-2025)
Once it can recognize patterns, AI begins to demonstrate deeper comprehension, reasoning, and logical inference. Systems are designed to understand context, interpret human instructions more dynamically, and explain their reasoning, mimicking the human brain and learning from massive sets of human interactions. Large Language Models like GPT or Claude are demonstrating nuanced understanding by summarizing complex documents, answering detailed questions, and explaining their reasoning clearly.
Agentic AI (Autonomous Decision-Making Stage – 2025-2030)
And as cognition and context improves, AI systems become more autonomous, capable of setting and pursuing their own goals, planning actions, and making decisions independently or semi-independently. Here, AI acts as an agent that proactively interacts with its environment.
Today, autonomous AI agents (like those from AutoGPT and reasoning and action (ReACT-style) agentic systems) autonomously perform complex tasks, such as planning trips, conducting research, managing schedules, and even negotiating on the user's behalf – see Harvard’s 2025 AI Negotiation Summit for examples of agents coaching real-world negotiations today (!).
Physical World Models & Embodied AI (Real-World Interaction Stage – 2030+)
And once autonomous decision making improves through large scale deployments, and robotics improve and become more affordable, AI systems become capable of understanding and navigating physical spaces and interacting meaningfully with the physical world around them. This involves integrating digital intelligence into physical devices like robots, drones, and vehicles. Soon we’ll see many more self-driving cars navigating city streets, humanoid robots performing complex tasks at home and in industrial settings, and AI-driven drones performing autonomous deliveries and more inspections based on real-time environmental understanding.
As we look at the very near future, and to set the stage for leadership in an age of increasingly adept human AI interactions, Mr. Hotard (who brought his young daughter to the conference) noted that 70% of workers will need upskilling – and the sooner the better.
What does all of this mean for you?
As I’ve said before, whether you're starting your career, mid-way through, or (like me, at the penultimate time) adaptability is your best friend. The skills that'll keep you competitive include curiosity, critical and analytical thinking, agility, resilience, AI and data knowledge, cybersecurity, and creative thinking.
And here's the drum I’ll never stop beating: The "human" skills like empathy, creativity and resilience are becoming more important, not less.
This isn't just about surviving the changes - it's about thriving in them. The future of work might look different, but it's full of opportunities if you're ready to grab them.
Stay curious, keep learning, and don't be afraid to pivot when needed.
Now's the time to start thinking about where you fit in our rapidly changing future. Whether that means picking up new tech skills, developing new leadership capabilities, or exploring entirely new career paths, the future of work is being written right now. And you get to be part of that story.
If you need support in writing your story, we are here to help. We train leaders and teams to handle AI on their terms, safely responsively and with an awareness of the risks and rewards of using AI to facilitate growth.
Resources from AIGG on your AI Journey
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